Where We Are in the Crypto Cycle ? August 11, 2025

The cryptocurrency market is at a unique moment, sitting somewhere between euphoria and anticipation. Understanding where we are in the cycle can help investors stay clear-headed and ready to act.

The market is moving into an euphoric phase

Bitcoin recently crossed the 122,000 dollar mark, flirting with the all-time high it reached in July. This rally reflects a surge in confidence fueled by regulatory moves in the United States, such as allowing crypto in 401k retirement plans, and a wave of institutional investment through ETFs.

Ethereum is holding strong near historic levels around 4,200 dollars. Altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Cardano are also enjoying renewed momentum.

Altseason is gaining strength

Market indicators suggest we are entering a true altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance has slipped to 59 percent while the altcoin index is rising. Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin with more than 50 percent gains over the past month. This shift shows capital moving toward altcoins in search of higher returns.

While this phase can bring explosive gains, it also comes with higher risk as emotions run high and FOMO takes over.

Position in the historical crypto cycle

Looking at past data, we are roughly 996 days from the last cycle bottom. Previous cycles tended to peak around 1,100 days, which suggests we are approaching the final stages of the current cycle.

Some analysts point to August 2025 as a potential turning point, with an intense wave of FOMO followed by a possible correction after the peak.

The macro and institutional backdrop

Regulation is easing, particularly in the US. The arrival of crypto prime brokers, the growth of crypto ETFs, and even some governments adding Bitcoin to reserves are strengthening the market’s legitimacy.

This environment is bringing in more professional investors, but it also ties crypto more closely to traditional financial cycles. Bitcoin is becoming increasingly correlated to stock market indices like the S&P 500.

Final thoughts

Right now we are in a phase of strong upward momentum, with Bitcoin and Ethereum at the forefront and altcoins capturing more attention. The data suggests we are closer to the top of the cycle than the bottom, making it a time to stay strategic. Euphoria can be exciting, but the smartest players keep a plan for what comes after the peak.